The short-term increase in freight rates is a foregone conclusion

The consolidation market suddenly experienced changes in December. The cause was a series of attacks by Yemeni Houthi armed groups on commercial ships, which deterred the shipping companies from entering the Mand Strait. The liner companies include Herbert, Hanxin Shipping (011200. KS), Dafei, Maersk, ONE, COSCO Shipping, Mediterranean Shipping, OOCL under Oriental Overseas International (00316. HK), Evergreen Shipping (2603. TW), Yangming Shipping (2609. TW), etc. 

As of 17:00 on December 20th, 103 container ships (including those that detour the Suez Canal from the Far East to the East) have chosen to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. The transportation costs of liner companies will increase, and the effective capacity level will also decrease, resulting in a natural increase in freight rates. 

On December 22nd, influenced by factors in the Red Sea region, the freight rates in the transportation markets of Asia Europe and other routes increased significantly, driving up the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI). The weekly report was 1254.99 points, a month on month increase of 14.8%. Reaching the highest point of the year.


Cruise companies have also announced another increase in surcharges. The online prices (including surcharges) for multiple voyages departing from Shanghai Port to Haifa, Israel in early January 2024, which were found on December 23, have exceeded $6000/FEU (including Mediterranean shipping, ONE, etc.), while Star Shipping's quotation has risen again from the $6311/FEU seen on December 21, to $6911/FEU. Maersk's quotation also increased by $400/FEU to $7400/FEU in just a few days.

Several freight forwarders have revealed that there will definitely be a wave of price increases in January. 

At present, there is still uncertainty about the duration of the effects brought about by the Red Sea incident. Currently, it can only be inferred that freight rates will remain at a good level before March next year. However, what is certain is that the European economic fundamentals are weak, coupled with the launch of a large number of new large container ships next year. After the Red Sea incident, the market will still return to a state of oversupply.

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